Atlantic Hurricane Season

In the UTC time the hurricane record uses, Isaias was upgraded three and a half hours after 1905's first hurricane. Wind shear, El Niño's brake all season, now hinges on a trough as Isaias nears the Gulf Coast and Rachel heads for Southern California.

Category number measures wind. It says nothing about how long a hurricane plans to sit still, and stalling is often what turns a storm catastrophic.

NOAA gives the 2026 Atlantic season a 55% chance of running below normal, largely because of a strengthening El Nino. The forecast comes with an explicit caveat: it only takes one storm.