Climate
EPA's Own Math: $45 Billion in Savings, 60 Million Tons More Methane
Trump said the methane rule is terminated; EPA's signed paper is a proposal. Its impact analysis explains the $45 billion, the 210 million barrels and the 60 million tons.
SoCal's Possible Record Tides: 6.8 Feet Astronomical, 1.35 From the Sea
Sunday's preliminary 7.71 feet left Los Angeles about 2.5 inches short of its 7.92-foot record. Astronomy sets the base; the Pacific's extra water decides whether this week beats it.
Vance Is Down to 85 mph, Yet Colima and Jalisco Still Face Days of Rain
Vance weakened to 85 mph by 3 a.m. CST Sunday and the center is forecast to stay offshore, yet the hurricane center still expects flooding rain and rough surf.
The 71% Jump in Europe's Heat Deaths Is About 54% Like for Like
The Imperial and LSHTM estimate of 50,391 heat deaths in 854 cities is a record in its own 854-city series, on either population base, but it is a cities-only model, and the 71% headline gap shrinks like for like.
UNEP's 18% by 2030 Is About 10.5 Billion Tonnes; Pledges Cover Under Half
Applied to UNEP's 2025 total, the 18% cut needed by 2030 is about 10.5 billion tonnes, and the yearly pace climbs from about 3.9% to 10.8% by 2040. Current national plans cover under half of the first step.
Indonesia's Dry-Ice Haze Trial Will Be Hard to Judge, and Harder to Scale
Palembang's airport read 50 meters of visibility on the morning Indonesia's first dry-ice flight was due. A cheap experiment is worth trying, but haze that swings on its own and 1.5 tons of ice against a city's worth of air make success hard to prove.
PG&E Readies Shutoffs for 70,000 Customers Without a Red Flag Warning
The notice list is a ceiling, not a forecast. Here is how PG&E's fuel-moisture and ignition models pick circuits, why Paradise is in scope, and how often warnings end in outages.
IPCC Delay Fight Hinges on Two Reports and a Trust Fund Running Dry
After 1,000 days without an agreed report timeline, the IPCC's Addis Ababa session is also deciding whether the panel can set a 2027 budget at all.
Mexico's $175 Million Hurricane Bond Turns on Where Simon Crosses a Line
Simon's eyewall sits very near Mexico's Pacific coast and forecasters can't say whether it will make landfall. The same few miles of track decide whether a World Bank catastrophe bond pays Mexico anything.
4.0°C Above Normal: Japan's El Niño Record Depends on Which Index You Read
Japan's gauge broke a 1997 record in September. NOAA's official measure, which strips out the warming of the whole tropical ocean, is still short of its 1983 high, and that gap shapes what this winter can expect.
Yorkshire Is in Drought, Not Under a Ban, With Reservoirs at 42.7%
The Environment Agency moved Yorkshire into drought on Oct. 9, yet Yorkshire Water plans no restrictions. The legal split, the reservoir numbers against last year's ban, and what winter rain must do.
Isaias Came Within Hours of 1905's Latest-First-Hurricane Record
In the UTC time the hurricane record uses, Isaias was upgraded three and a half hours after 1905's first hurricane. Wind shear, El Niño's brake all season, now hinges on a trough as Isaias nears the Gulf Coast and Rachel heads for Southern California.
Does the First Frost Kill Mosquitoes? Daylight Matters More
Frost gets the credit for ending mosquito season, but shrinking daylight flips the switch weeks earlier, and many mosquitoes simply wait out winter in garages and as eggs.
Frost Advisory vs. Freeze Warning vs. Hard Freeze: What Each Means
The three cold-weather alerts measure different risks, their cutoffs change from one forecast office to the next, and all of them disappear once your growing season is over.
Why Leaves Are Changing Color Early: What Drought Stress Means
Day length, the normal trigger for fall color, is the same every year. When a tree turns weeks early, drought or damage is usually doing the work, and 2026 has offered plenty of both.
Derecho or Tornado? The Wind Pattern That Tells You Which
A derecho and a tornado can look equally destructive, but only one of them spins. Here's the wind pattern, and the wind-speed math, that tells them apart.
Türkiye Says It Still Has Final Say Over COP31
Türkiye and Australia split the COP31 presidency to end a yearlong hosting fight. This week Türkiye's climate minister said the deal doesn't make them equals.
Why Wildfire Smoke Can Smell Like Burning Plastic
The acrid, chemical smell in wildfire smoke isn't your imagination — it's benzene and formaldehyde, and sometimes it's literally burning plastic.
Why California Drains Its Reservoirs Before a Storm Even Arrives
Before a single drop of storm runoff arrives, California dam operators are already emptying space for it. New atmospheric-river forecasting means they can now time that release to the hour.
Why King Tides Flood Streets Without a Single Storm
Twice a year, the moon and sun line up to push ordinary high tides over seawalls with no storm in sight, and South Florida just published exactly when it happens next.