Supergirl Opens to a $50M Test as Toy Story 5 Holds the Box Office
DC's reboot lands Friday with a respectable number that still may not win the weekend. The math around it tells the more interesting story.
DC's Supergirl reaches theaters Friday carrying a perfectly decent number and a slightly awkward one. The decent number: a projected opening of roughly $47 million to $50 million from about 3,600 venues. The awkward one: that may not be enough to win its own opening weekend.
Standing in the way is a cartoon cowgirl and a toy astronaut. Toy Story 5 is forecast to pull $80 million to $90 million in its second frame, enough to sit atop the chart for a second week and leave the new superhero release looking up. For a reboot meant to plant a flag for the relaunched DC slate, opening behind a Pixar sequel's sophomore weekend is not the headline the studio wanted.
The film stars Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, with David Corenswet checking in as her cousin Clark Kent and Jason Momoa along for the ride. It rolls out from Warner Bros. on 26 June, IMAX screens included. The trailers have sold a darker, rougher Supergirl than the bright civic hero of recent Superman fare, which is part of the gamble: DC is betting audiences want range from the brand, not more of the same.
The weekend's other newcomer tells a quieter, sadder industry story. Jackass: Best and Last, Paramount's send-off for the stunt franchise, is tracking a launch of $10 million to $15 million from about 2,800 theaters. Unless it badly beats expectations, that would be the lowest opening the series has ever posted; 2022's Jackass Forever debuted to roughly $23 million. A farewell film opening at half the prior installment is its own kind of ending.
What does a $50 million Supergirl actually mean? In the old superhero economy it would read as soft. In 2026, with budgets and expectations both recalibrated after years of franchise fatigue, a clean opening in that range for a non-Superman, non-Batman DC title is closer to par than to disaster, provided word of mouth holds and the film has legs into July. The number to watch is not Friday's; it is the second-weekend drop, which is where audience enthusiasm, or its absence, shows up.
All of this unfolds inside a summer that has already been kind to Hollywood, with Pixar's latest powering the season toward a $4 billion haul. Supergirl does not have to topple Toy Story 5 to matter. It has to convince audiences that the new DC is worth showing up for, one reboot at a time.
