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WMO multi-model ensemble map showing high probabilities of above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe for October to December 2026, with the equatorial Pacific signal of El Niño.

4.0°C Above Normal: Japan's El Niño Record Depends on Which Index You Read

Japan's gauge broke a 1997 record in September. NOAA's official measure, which strips out the warming of the whole tropical ocean, is still short of its 1983 high, and that gap shapes what this winter can expect.

Climate  · 10 Oct 2026, 12:55  · Maya Calder
Scar House Reservoir dam in Nidderdale, North Yorkshire, in a 2014 file photograph

Yorkshire Is in Drought, Not Under a Ban, With Reservoirs at 42.7%

The Environment Agency moved Yorkshire into drought on Oct. 9, yet Yorkshire Water plans no restrictions. The legal split, the reservoir numbers against last year's ban, and what winter rain must do.

Climate  · 9 Oct 2026, 19:10  · Maya Calder
An oak tree at Dumfries House in East Ayrshire, Scotland, holding on to its dead brown leaves, a habit known as marcescence. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Why Some Trees Keep Their Dead Leaves All Winter

Young oaks and beeches cling to brown, papery leaves straight through the snow. The mechanism is well understood; the purpose is still a genuine scientific argument.

Science  · 3 Oct 2026, 12:20  · Daniel Okafor
The Chicago skyline silhouetted against an orange sunset sky, illustrating the same sun-angle geometry behind the city's rapid September daylight loss.

Why Days Shorten Fastest at the Equinox, Not the Solstice

The sun's path crosses the horizon at its steepest angle near the equinoxes and nearly flattens out near the solstices — and Chicago's sunrise-sunset data show just how much that speeds up, then stalls, the loss of daylight.

Science  · 1 Oct 2026, 14:21  · Daniel Okafor
Konyaaltı Beach in Antalya, Türkiye, the resort city hosting the COP31 UN climate summit in November 2026.

Türkiye Says It Still Has Final Say Over COP31

Türkiye and Australia split the COP31 presidency to end a yearlong hosting fight. This week Türkiye's climate minister said the deal doesn't make them equals.

Climate  · 12 Sep 2026, 12:23  · Maya Calder
A coastal settlement exposed to rising seas, the kind of place UNEP's new report says faces growing risk the longer global warming stays in overshoot. Image via UN Environment Programme.

What Climate Overshoot Means Now That 1.5°C Is Gone

A new UN report concedes the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit will be crossed within years. What happens next is called "overshoot" — and it will shape climate policy for the rest of the century.

Climate  · 2 Sep 2026, 12:25  · Maya Calder
A misty forest carbon-offset project, representative of the kind of nature-based project that issues voluntary carbon credits.

Carbon Credits Don't Expire. They Get Retired

A carbon credit doesn't expire like a coupon, it gets 'retired' once and only once. Here's how retirement actually works, and the separate durability question it doesn't answer.

Climate  · 13 Aug 2026, 12:25  · Maya Calder
President Trump signs a proclamation setting tariffs and minimum import prices on polysilicon, the material used to make solar panels and semiconductors.

Tariff vs. Price Floor: What Trump's New Solar Rule Does

The White House set a 15% tariff on polysilicon and, separately, a hard minimum price. The two tools do very different jobs, and the gap between them explains why solar makers are watching closely.

Climate  · 7 Aug 2026, 12:24  · Maya Calder
Cracked, dry soil typical of a fast-developing flash drought.

What Is a Flash Drought? The Dry Spell That Outruns the Forecast

A flash drought can turn a healthy field into a stressed one within days, driven by heat and wind rather than a lack of rain. Farmers and forecasters are racing to catch up.

Climate  · 19 Jul 2026, 12:26  · Maya Calder
Official National Weather Service graphic showing the renamed Extreme Heat Watch and Extreme Heat Warning alert criteria.

Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning? What the NWS Renamed in 2025

The National Weather Service quietly retired "Excessive Heat Warning" in 2025. Here's what the new terms mean, and the exact thresholds regional offices use to issue them.

Climate  · 11 Jul 2026, 18:19  · Maya Calder
Fans cool off during a World Cup match at Philadelphia Stadium as a major heat wave grips the East Coast.

Heat Dome Threatens Record Highs From D.C. to New York by July 4

More than 165 million Americans face major or extreme heat risk this week as a record-threatening heat dome settles over the East Coast and Midwest through the July Fourth weekend — and complicates World Cup matches.

Climate  · 2 Jul 2026, 12:23  · Maya Calder
A thermometer reading 41C during a French heatwave (file image).

France Closes Schools as 49 Departments Hit the Red Heat Alert

A solstice-week heat dome pushed France toward a national record and shut hundreds of schools, with Britain's peak still days away.

Climate  · 22 Jun 2026, 12:24  · Maya Calder
People seek shade and water during the extreme heat building across France ahead of the summer solstice.

Europe's Heat Dome Pushes France Toward a Record-Breaking Solstice

A heat dome has settled over Western Europe for the summer solstice, with France warning Monday could be its hottest day on record and 53 departments already under an orange alert.

Climate  · 19 Jun 2026, 16:17  · Maya Calder